Before the Ballot 2027

The SysIN Nigeria States Report compares living conditions, public finances, opportunity and civic life across Nigeria’s 36 states and the FCT ahead of the 2027 elections. More federal money meets doubled prices and rising insecurity.

Executive summary

Average monthly net FAAC transfers to the 36 state governments and the FCT rose from ₦305 billion in the year before the May 2023 subsidy removal to ₦793 billion between August 2025 and July 2026 [3]. Adjusting each state's receipts for its own consumer prices, the median state gained 49% in real terms. Akwa Ibom, Delta and Rivers received less in real terms than before, because their earlier receipts were already high and prices rose faster than their transfers. The largest real gains were in Lagos, Plateau and Osun; on the FAAC Windfall vertical, which also weighs the gain per person and deductions, Taraba, Nasarawa and Kwara score highest.

Across states, consumer prices rose by a median of 100% between May 2023 and September 2026, from 76% in Taraba to 122% in Imo [2]. Inflation has eased: average headline inflation over the past twelve months was 15.2%, down from 25.7% a year earlier. Prices still rose fastest in Zamfara, Yobe and Enugu, and most gently in Borno, Kebbi and Jigawa.

ACLED recorded 15,777 conflict deaths in 2025, against 8,872 in 2023, and 12,802 in the first ten months of 2026 [4]. Five states Borno, Zamfara, Katsina, Niger and Sokoto — accounted for 69% of 2025 deaths. Relative to population, Borno and Zamfara had the highest conflict death rates, each above 40 deaths per 100,000 people. 24 of the 37 recorded more conflict deaths in 2025 than in 2023, and in 21 the increase exceeded 25%. Zamfara, Katsina and Niger carry the highest kidnapping risk.

The 35 states covered by BudgIT's 2025 edition collected ₦3.0 trillion in internally generated revenue (IGR) in 2024, 42% of it in Lagos [1]. For the median state, FAAC transfers made up 75% of total revenue, and for 11 states the share exceeded 80%. Total state debt stood at ₦10.6 trillion at the end of 2024; 24 states held more than half of it in foreign currency.

The median state devoted 53% of its 2024 spending to capital projects, with Anambra, Ebonyi and Enugu above 69% and Ondo, Cross River and Kogi below 23% [1]. On the Value for the Windfall composite, which compares each state's real windfall with changes in security, prices and capital spending, Abia, Adamawa and Taraba achieved the most relative to their windfall; Kwara, Niger and Zamfara the least.

Under-five mortality ranges from 15 deaths per 1,000 live births in Lagos to 202 in Sokoto [1]. Between 2019 and 2021, the share of school candidates achieving five WAEC credits including English and Mathematics ranged from 89% in Abia to 28% in Jigawa [6]. Lagos, Rivers and Ogun lead the Investability Index, which combines fiscal strength, security, investment activity and financial access.

INEC has scheduled presidential and National Assembly elections for 16 January 2027 and governorship and State Assembly elections for 6 February 2027 [13]. In 2023 the presidential vote split evenly: APC, PDP and LP each won 12 of the 37 states and NNPP won one [12]. SysIN classifies 9 states as swing states and 12 as competitive. On the Election Violence Risk composite, which combines competitiveness, past election-period violence and current unrest, Bayelsa, Benue, FCT, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Osun, Plateau and Rivers are on the high-risk watch list.

Key findings

1. Federal money rose, but real gains varied

   Average monthly net FAAC transfers rose from ₦305bn before subsidy removal to ₦793bn in August 2025–July 2026. The median state gained 49% in real terms; Akwa Ibom, Delta and Rivers received less after inflation.

2. Consumer prices roughly doubled

   The median rise in state consumer prices was 100% between May 2023 and September 2026, ranging from 76% in Taraba to 122% in Imo.

3. Insecurity weighs heavily on state outcomes

   Conflict deaths rose from 8,872 in 2023 to 15,777 in 2025. Borno, Zamfara, Katsina, Niger and Sokoto accounted for 69% of 2025 deaths.

4. State finances remain transfer-dependent

   FAAC supplied 75% of revenue for the median state, and more than 80% in 11 states. Lagos accounted for 42% of internally generated revenue collected by the 35 states with 2024 data.

5. Conditions and investability tell different stories

   Akwa Ibom leads the SysIN State Index at 68.8; Zamfara is last at 28.1. Lagos ranks joint 18th on that index but leads the Investability Index.

6. Election risk is a watch list, not a prediction

   Bayelsa, Benue, FCT, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Osun, Plateau and Rivers form the high-risk watch list. The composite signals where observers should watch closely; it does not predict that violence will occur.

How to read this report

Before the Ballot 2027 ranks Nigeria's 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) ahead of the January and February 2027 elections. It looks at the things residents feel most directly: what they pay for food and fuel, how safe they are, what their governments do with public money, and the opportunities open to them. It combines 16 public data sources holding 610 indicators, applies one published method, and reports every result with its source.

A vertical is one theme on which all states are measured and ranked, such as the cost of living or debt. Each vertical brings together two to seven related indicators, converts them to a common 0–100 scale and combines them, using published weights, into a single score. A higher score is always better. The report has 13 verticals, grouped into four pillars: living conditions, public money, opportunity, and civic and political life.

The same indicators and weights apply to every state. Rankings describe conditions, not government effort or intent. Some inputs are dated or incomplete; the FCT is not ranked on the headline index because BudgIT does not report its finances, and Rivers uses 2023 state-finance data.

The SysIN State Index

The headline index combines the five verticals with the freshest data. Half of its weight rests on outcomes residents experience directly — prices and safety — and half on how state governments raise, borrow and spend money.

Cost of Living Pressure

Prices rose fastest over the past year in Zamfara, Yobe and Enugu, where headline inflation averaged 17.8% or more between October 2025 and September 2026 [2].

Safety & Security

The safest states in 2025 were Ekiti, Oyo and Jigawa.

Kidnapping Risk

Relative to population, kidnapping is most common in Zamfara, Katsina and Kwara. Historically, the Nigeria Security Tracker recorded 18,954 persons kidnapped in the 36 states and the FCT between 2011 and mid-2023 (excluding incidents with an unknown location), the largest numbers in Kaduna, Zamfara and Niger [5].

Civilian Protection

Violence aimed directly at civilians — attacks, abductions and sexual violence — accounted for 59% of violent events in 2025 [4]. Civilians face the greatest risk in Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara; Ekiti, Bauchi and Ogun score best on Civilian Protection, which also weighs civilian deaths and the civilian share of fatalities.

FAAC Windfall

Net transfers rose from an average of ₦305 billion a month (June 2022 – May 2023) to ₦793 billion (August 2025 – July 2026) [3]. After adjusting for each state's inflation, the largest real gains were in Lagos, Plateau and Osun, and Taraba, Nasarawa and Kwara score highest on this vertical. Akwa Ibom, Delta and Rivers — where the 13% derivation share paid to oil-producing states [18] had already lifted receipts — received less in real terms.

Fiscal Self-Reliance

Lagos, Enugu and Ogun are the most fiscally selfreliant states. Lagos raised ₦77,869 per resident in 2024, against a median of ₦5,973 [1]. For Akwa Ibom, Sokoto and Taraba, FAAC transfers made up more than 88% of total revenue.

Debt Safety

State debt totalled ₦10.6 trillion at the end of 2024 [1].

Spending Priorities

Abia, Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom score highest, combining a large share of spending on capital projects with comparatively high health and education spending per resident [1]; the largest capital shares were in Anambra, Ebonyi and Enugu. Cross River, Ogun and Plateau score lowest, each with less than a third of spending going to capital projects.

Value for the Windfall

Did the extra federal money show up in residents' lives? This composite sets each state's real FAAC windfall per person against an outcome score built from three changes: the change in conflict deaths per 100,000 people since 2023, the cumulative rise in prices since May 2023 (both lower is better) and capital spending per person in 2024. The line shows the outcome a state of each windfall size would be expected to achieve; states above it did better than expected.

Health Outcomes & Investment

A child born in Sokoto is about 13 times as likely to die before age five as one born in Lagos [1]. Lagos, Edo and Anambra lead on health; the three lowest-ranked states are all in the North West.

Learning Outcomes

Between 2019 and 2021, Abia, Rivers and Imo recorded the highest WAEC pass rates (five credits including English and Mathematics) among school candidates; Jigawa, Zamfara and Yobe the lowest [6]. JAMB admission rates, based on 2018 data, are also included [7].

Investment & Enterprise

Lagos, Ogun and FCT lead on investment and enterprise, combining NIPC investment activity, capital importation, a dense base of formal firms and better Doing Business ranks [9, 8, 10]. NIPC counts describe the commission's own reported activity — announcements, facilitation and interest — and should not be read as verified investment received.

Financial Access

Of the 239 offices listed by the 15 firms that publish state-level branch lists, 54 are in Lagos and 25 in the FCT [11]. Benue has none. Large banks such as Access, GTCO, Zenith, UBA and FirstBank publish only national totals, so this vertical is shown as context and carries a small weight in the Investability Index only.

Investability Index

The Investability Index answers the question a bank, development-finance institution or investor asks first: where is the risk-adjusted case strongest? It weights fiscal self-reliance and safety at 25% each, debt safety and investment and enterprise at 20% each, and financial access at 10%.

Civic Space

Between 2021 and 2025, security forces intervened in or used force against a median of 9% of protests in each state [4]. The share was highest in Jigawa, Adamawa and Niger. Ekiti, Ebonyi and Imo score best, combining a low share of protests met with force and few riots or episodes of mob violence.

The electoral landscape

SysIN classifies each state by how contested its presidential vote has been. A Stronghold was won by more than 40 percentage points in 2023; a Leaning state by 15–40 points; a Competitive state by 5–15 points. A Swing state was won by less than 5 points, or changed its winning party in both 2019 and 2023.

Election Violence Risk

This composite identifies where the 2027 elections may be most at risk of violence. It combines five indicators: how close the 2023 presidential race was (25%); violent incidents involving election-related actors in 2015, 2019 and 2023, per million residents (25%); riots in those election years, per 100,000 (25%); current levels of violence (15%); and excessive force against protesters since 2021 (10%) [12, 5, 4].

Most Improved

This composite rewards change rather than level, so states that start from a weak position can rank highly. It averages three standardised changes: the movement in BudgIT's fiscal sustainability rank between its 2024 and 2025 editions [1]; the change in conflict deaths per 100,000 people between 2023 and 2025 [4]; and the change in average headline inflation between the year to September 2025 and the year to September 2026 [2].

Abia state profile

Abia ranks 4 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the leading band. Its strongest result is in Spending Priorities (1 of 36) and its weakest in Debt Safety (25 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 16.5% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 94 conflict deaths in 2025 (2.0 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 225% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 50% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Adamawa state profile

Adamawa ranks 27 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the lagging band. Its strongest result is in FAAC Windfall (12 of 37) and its weakest in Civic Space (33 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 17.4% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 131 conflict deaths in 2025 (2.4 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 206% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 51% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Akwa Ibom state profile

Akwa Ibom ranks 1 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the leading band. Its strongest result is in Debt Safety (1 of 36) and its weakest in FAAC Windfall (35 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 17.0% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 16 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.2 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 63% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real fall of 21% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Anambra state profile

Anambra ranks 14 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the strong band. Its strongest result is in Health Outcomes & Investment (3 of 36) and its weakest in Investment & Enterprise (32 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 17.5% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 160 conflict deaths in 2025 (2.3 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 181% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 35% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Bauchi state profile

Bauchi ranks 12 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the strong band. Its strongest result is in Civilian Protection (2 of 37) and its weakest in Learning Outcomes (34 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 14.7% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 61 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.7 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 169% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 26% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Bayelsa state profile

Bayelsa ranks 9 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the strong band. Its strongest result is in Spending Priorities (2 of 36) and its weakest in Cost of Living Pressure (35 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 17.6% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 27 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.9 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 108% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 0% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Benue state profile

Benue ranks 34 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the critical band. Its strongest result is in FAAC Windfall (7 of 37) and its weakest in Financial Access (35 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 17.2% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 882 conflict deaths in 2025 (12.1 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 209% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 58% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Borno state profile

Borno ranks 28 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the lagging band. Its strongest result is in Cost of Living Pressure (2 of 37) and its weakest in Safety & Security (36 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 11.7% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 3,862 conflict deaths in 2025 (50.2 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 192% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 49% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Cross River state profile

Cross River ranks 25 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the lagging band. Its strongest result is in Learning Outcomes (2 of 37) and its weakest in Spending Priorities (34 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 15.9% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 34 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.7 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 185% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 39% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Delta state profile

Delta ranks 15 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the middle band. Its strongest result is in Debt Safety (3 of 36) and its weakest in FAAC Windfall (36 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 17.7% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 114 conflict deaths in 2025 (1.6 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 67% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real fall of 15% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Ebonyi state profile

Ebonyi ranks 3 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the leading band. Its strongest result is in Civic Space (2 of 37) and its weakest in Investment & Enterprise (36 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 13.0% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 59 conflict deaths in 2025 (1.6 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 189% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 40% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Edo state profile

Edo ranks 13 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the strong band. Its strongest result is in Health Outcomes & Investment (2 of 36) and its weakest in Debt Safety (34 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 12.6% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 115 conflict deaths in 2025 (2.2 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 114% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 5% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Ekiti state profile

Ekiti ranks 20 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the middle band. Its strongest result is in Safety & Security (1 of 37) and its weakest in FAAC Windfall (30 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 16.0% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 2 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.0 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 170% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 31% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Enugu state profile

Enugu ranks 7 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the leading band. Its strongest result is in Fiscal Self-Reliance (2 of 36) and its weakest in Cost of Living Pressure (36 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 17.8% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 63 conflict deaths in 2025 (1.1 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 185% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 41% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Federal Capital Territory state profile

The FCT is not ranked on the SysIN State Index because 2024 state-finance data are not available for it [1]. Its strongest result is in Financial Access (1 of 37) and its weakest in Civic Space (36 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 15.3% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 67 conflict deaths in 2025 (1.5 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 206% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 47% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Gombe state profile

Gombe ranks 8 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the strong band. Its strongest result is in Investment & Enterprise (5 of 37) and its weakest in Fiscal Self-Reliance (31 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 14.8% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 16 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.4 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 219% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 56% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Imo state profile

Imo ranks 18 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the middle band. Its strongest result is in Civic Space (3 of 37) and its weakest in Investment & Enterprise (37 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 15.8% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 141 conflict deaths in 2025 (2.0 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 216% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 59% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Jigawa state profile

Jigawa ranks 2 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the leading band. Its strongest result is in Kidnapping Risk (2 of 37) and its weakest in Financial Access (35 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 12.3% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 25 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.3 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 186% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 38% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Kaduna state profile

Kaduna ranks 31 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the critical band. Its strongest result is in Financial Access (5 of 37) and its weakest in Debt Safety (36 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 13.3% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 324 conflict deaths in 2025 (3.1 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 167% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 28% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Kano state profile

Kano ranks 11 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the strong band. Its strongest result is in Civilian Protection (6 of 37) and its weakest in Health Outcomes & Investment (30 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 13.8% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 94 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.6 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 199% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 44% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Katsina state profile

Katsina ranks 30 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the critical band. Its strongest result is in Cost of Living Pressure (5 of 37) and its weakest in Kidnapping Risk (36 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 13.5% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 1,858 conflict deaths in 2025 (18.7 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 205% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 58% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Kebbi state profile

Kebbi ranks 20 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the middle band. Its strongest result is in Cost of Living Pressure (4 of 37) and its weakest in Fiscal Self-Reliance (35 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 12.3% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 324 conflict deaths in 2025 (5.7 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 193% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 40% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Kogi state profile

Kogi ranks 24 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the lagging band. Its strongest result is in Civic Space (11 of 37) and its weakest in Spending Priorities (32 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 14.7% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 150 conflict deaths in 2025 (2.6 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 216% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 47% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Kwara state profile

Kwara ranks 29 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the critical band. Its strongest result is in FAAC Windfall (3 of 37) and its weakest in Cost of Living Pressure (34 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 16.6% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 488 conflict deaths in 2025 (12.0 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 239% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 65% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Lagos state profile

Lagos ranks 18 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the middle band. Its strongest result is in Investment & Enterprise (1 of 37) and its weakest in Debt Safety (35 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 17.3% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 102 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.6 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 317% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 94% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Nasarawa state profile

Nasarawa ranks 10 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the strong band. Its strongest result is in FAAC Windfall (2 of 37) and its weakest in Civilian Protection (31 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 13.9% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 99 conflict deaths in 2025 (3.1 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 200% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 52% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Niger state profile

Niger ranks 33 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the critical band. Its strongest result is in Investment & Enterprise (9 of 37) and its weakest in Civic Space (37 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 14.9% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 1,504 conflict deaths in 2025 (20.6 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 211% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 50% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Ogun state profile

Ogun ranks 16 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the middle band. Its strongest result is in Investment & Enterprise (2 of 37) and its weakest in Spending Priorities (35 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 14.8% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 37 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.5 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 235% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 64% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Ondo state profile

Ondo ranks 26 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the lagging band. Its strongest result is in Financial Access (12 of 37) and its weakest in Spending Priorities (33 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 16.3% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 64 conflict deaths in 2025 (1.1 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 155% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 24% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Osun state profile

Osun ranks 22 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the lagging band. Its strongest result is in Kidnapping Risk (1 of 37) and its weakest in Learning Outcomes (35 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 14.7% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 33 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.5 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 252% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 70% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Oyo state profile

Oyo ranks 17 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the middle band. Its strongest result is in Safety & Security (2 of 37) and its weakest in Spending Priorities (28 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 13.9% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 21 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.2 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 223% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 51% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Plateau state profile

Plateau ranks 32 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the critical band. Its strongest result is in FAAC Windfall (4 of 37) and its weakest in Spending Priorities (36 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 13.5% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 675 conflict deaths in 2025 (12.9 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 253% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 75% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Rivers state profile

Rivers ranks 6 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the leading band. Its strongest result is in Learning Outcomes (1 of 37) and its weakest in FAAC Windfall (37 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 16.7% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 60 conflict deaths in 2025 (0.6 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 86% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real fall of 11% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Sokoto state profile

Sokoto ranks 35 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the critical band. Its strongest result is in FAAC Windfall (12 of 37) and its weakest in Health Outcomes & Investment (36 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 16.1% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 914 conflict deaths in 2025 (14.4 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 222% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 58% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Taraba state profile

Taraba ranks 5 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the leading band. Its strongest result is in Cost of Living Pressure (1 of 37) and its weakest in Fiscal Self-Reliance (32 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 13.3% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 146 conflict deaths in 2025 (3.8 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 228% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 68% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Yobe state profile

Yobe ranks 23 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the lagging band. Its strongest result is in Debt Safety (2 of 36) and its weakest in Fiscal Self-Reliance (36 of 36). Headline inflation averaged 17.9% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 256 conflict deaths in 2025 (5.9 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 206% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 50% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

Zamfara state profile

Zamfara ranks 36 of 36 on the SysIN State Index, in the critical band. Its strongest result is in Debt Safety (4 of 36) and its weakest in Cost of Living Pressure (37 of 37). Headline inflation averaged 18.1% over the twelve months to September 2026 [2], and ACLED recorded 2,759 conflict deaths in 2025 (47.3 per 100,000 residents) [4]. Net FAAC receipts rose 228% in naira terms after the subsidy removal, a real gain of 58% once its inflation is taken into account [3].

21.1 Unit of analysis and population

The report covers the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (37 units). The FCT is a federal territory administered by a minister; BudgIT does not report its finances, so it is not ranked in verticals that depend on BudgIT data. Perperson rates use one population base for all indicators: the 2024 population implied by BudgIT's 2025 edition (IGR 2024 divided by IGR per person 2024) [1]. Rivers, which is absent from that edition, uses the population implied by BudgIT's 2024 edition (IGR 2023 divided by IGR per person 2023). For the FCT, the NIPC 2017 estimate [8] is multiplied by the median ratio between the BudgIT 2024 figure and the 2017 estimate across the other states (1.277). The resulting national total is 248 million.

21.2 Periods

Each indicator uses the latest period available for all or nearly all states, and the same period for every state. A state that lacks data for that period is shown as missing, with one documented exception: Rivers (21.3).

21.3 The Rivers exception

Rivers State is absent from BudgIT's 2025 edition (2024 data), which supplies the three fiscal verticals. Leaving it out would remove it from the SysIN State Index and the Investability Index, which together carry most of the report's weight. Rivers is therefore scored on the latest state finances available for it: its 2023 accounts from BudgIT's 2024 edition [1]. Ratios (such as FAAC dependency, debt service as a share of revenue, or capital spending as a share of total spending) are used as reported. Naira amounts per person (IGR, capital spending and debt per person) are converted to 2024 prices using Rivers' own consumer price index (factor 1.340) [2]. Real IGR growth uses 2022–2023 deflated by Rivers' 2023 inflation. Health and education spending per person are not reported for 2023, so the 2022 figures (BudgIT 2023 edition) are used, converted to 2024 prices (factor 1.708). Budget delivery for health and education is not available, so Spending Priorities is scored on 90% of its weight. Rivers is marked † wherever these figures are used: Fiscal Self-Reliance, Debt Safety, Spending Priorities, Health, the SysIN State Index, the Investability Index and Value for the Windfall. Its results should be read as indicative, as its data are one year older than other states'.

21.4 Scoring formulas

Capping. For indicator x across ranked states: x′ = min(max(x, P5), P95), where P5 and P95 are the 5th and 95th percentiles (linear interpolation).

21.5 Data treatment

Inflation. All cost-of-living indicators use rates of change, because NBS advises that state CPI levels are not comparable across states [2].

21.6 What the method cannot do

Rankings summarise; they do not explain causes. Conflict data are compiled from media reports and may under-count events in remote areas.

21.10 Neutrality and review

Identical indicators, weights and periods apply to every state.