Mauritius Country Intelligence Brief 2026
An investment-grade gateway into Africa faces slower growth, above-target inflation and fiscal-repair challenges. The brief examines productive investment in digital services, logistics, renewables and tourism.
Executive summary
Mauritius is still an investment-grade, well-run gateway into Africa, but it is going through its weakest stretch in years. Growth is slowing below 3%, inflation is above target, the rupee is softening and Moody's has kept its lowest investment-grade rating on negative outlook since January 2025. The government elected in November 2024 has cut the deficit sharply and raised the pension age, but its fiscal plan relied partly on Chagos payments that have not arrived. It wants capital that brings hard currency, productive capacity and skills: AI and digital services, port and transshipment, renewable energy, the blue economy and high-value tourism. Investors want proof that fiscal repair holds without Chagos money, that the rating stays investment grade, and that tax and permit rules stop changing.
Key findings
Real GDP
4.7% (2024); 3.2% (2025); 2.0% year on year in Q1 2026; 2.7–2.8% forecast for 2026 [19, 1, 16]
Inflation
5.7% year on year (Sep 2026), the highest since February 2024 [3]
Reserves
US$10.21bn (Aug 2026) [10]
Public debt
87.8% of GDP, Rs681.9bn (end-Jun 2026); 79.8% projected for June 2029; legal cap 75% by FY2030 [8, 17, 24]
| Area | Indicator | Latest value |
|---|---|---|
| Size | Nominal GDP | Rs776.8bn (FY2025/26); about US$16.1bn, or about US$12,700 per person (2025) [7, 16] 1 |
| Growth | Real GDP | 4.7% (2024); 3.2% (2025); 2.0% year on year in Q1 2026; 2.7–2.8% forecast for 2026 [19, 1, 16] |
| Outlook | AfDB: 3.0% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027 [20] | |
| Prices | Inflation | 5.7% year on year (Sep 2026), the highest since February 2024 [3] |
| Rates | Key Rate | 4.75%, raised 20 May 2026 and held 12 Aug 2026; next MPC 11 Nov [4, 2] |
| FX | Rs per US$ | 47.94 (16 Oct 2026), from 45.52 in June 2025 [21, 22] |
| External | Reserves | US$10.21bn (Aug 2026) [10] |
| Current account | Deficit of 7.1% of GDP in 2025 [7] | |
| Fiscal | Deficit | 6.0% of GDP in FY2025/26; 3.7% budgeted for FY2026/27 [6, 23] |
| Public debt | 87.8% of GDP, Rs681.9bn (end-Jun 2026); 79.8% projected for June 2029; legal cap 75% by FY2030 [8, 17, 24] | |
| Ratings | Moody's | Baa3, negative outlook since 30 Jan 2025 [25, 26] |
| CareEdge | BBB, outlook revised to negative from stable on 30 Jul 2026 [16] | |
| People | Population | About 1.27 million; ageing and shrinking [27] |
| Unemployment | 5.7% (2025); youth unemployment 19.1% (Q1 2026) [18] |
Economic snapshot
2.8% Growth forecast for 2026 from the IMF and the Bank of Mauritius, down from 3.2% in 2025 [1, 2]
The government elected in November 2024 began with a "State of the Economy" audit, which found that growth had been overstated and the deficit and debt understated [14, 15] . It then cut the deficit from 9.3% to 6.0% of GDP in one year and began raising the pension age from 60 to 65 [16, 17, 6] . Mauritius was classed as high income in 2020, a test based on GNI per person, but has not regained that status [18] .
Area: Size; Indicator: Nominal GDP; Latest value: Rs776.8bn (FY2025/26); about US$16.1bn, or about US$12,700 per person (2025) [7, 16] 1.
Area: Growth; Indicator: Real GDP; Latest value: 4.7% (2024); 3.2% (2025); 2.0% year on year in Q1 2026; 2.7–2.8% forecast for 2026 [19, 1, 16].
Indicator: Outlook; Latest value: AfDB: 3.0% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027 [20].
Area: Prices; Indicator: Inflation; Latest value: 5.7% year on year (Sep 2026), the highest since February 2024 [3].
Area: Rates; Indicator: Key Rate; Latest value: 4.75%, raised 20 May 2026 and held 12 Aug 2026; next MPC 11 Nov [4, 2].
Area: FX; Indicator: Rs per US$; Latest value: 47.94 (16 Oct 2026), from 45.52 in June 2025 [21, 22].
Area: External; Indicator: Reserves; Latest value: US$10.21bn (Aug 2026) [10].
Indicator: Current account; Latest value: Deficit of 7.1% of GDP in 2025 [7].
Area: Fiscal; Indicator: Deficit; Latest value: 6.0% of GDP in FY2025/26; 3.7% budgeted for FY2026/27 [6, 23].
Indicator: Public debt; Latest value: 87.8% of GDP, Rs681.9bn (end-Jun 2026); 79.8% projected for June 2029; legal cap 75% by FY2030 [8, 17, 24].
Area: Ratings; Indicator: Moody's; Latest value: Baa3, negative outlook since 30 Jan 2025 [25, 26].
Indicator: CareEdge; Latest value: BBB, outlook revised to negative from stable on 30 Jul 2026 [16].
Area: People; Indicator: Population; Latest value: About 1.27 million; ageing and shrinking [27].
Indicator: Unemployment; Latest value: 5.7% (2025); youth unemployment 19.1% (Q1 2026) [18].
1 Fiscal-year figures run July to June. World Bank calendar-year figures differ: general government debt was about 89% of GDP in 2025.
Inflation is back above target
Year-on-year inflation rose from 2.7% in March to 5.7% in September 2026, the highest since February 2024, driven by food, transport and housing [3] . The Bank of Mauritius raised its Key Rate to 4.75% in May, the highest since 2013, and the Governor expects inflation to breach the 2–5% band by year-end [4, 28] .
Fiscal repair, with a Chagos-sized hole
The FY2025/26 deficit came in at 6.0% of GDP against a 4.9% target, partly because about Rs10bn of expected Chagos inflows never arrived; without that gap it would have been 4.7%, inside the target [6, 34]. The 2026-27 budget, presented on 19 June 2026, targets a deficit of 3.7% on revenue of Rs235.5bn and spending of Rs266.7bn [7, 23]. Analysts note the revenue step-up partly depends on inflows still awaiting ratification [34, 6].
Ratings and the reform record
Date: 11 Dec 2024; Event: State of the Economy report tabled [14]; Why it matters: Reset the starting point for policy.
Trade and investment profile
Rs103bn Tourism receipts in 2025, a record, from 1.44 million visitors [12, 40]
The financial centre and investment
FDI. UNCTAD figures put FDI inflows at US$804m in 2025, up from US$681m, with an inward stock of about US$9bn [13] . The BoM's measure, which excludes global business companies, reached a record Rs48.0bn in 2025, from Rs33.0bn in 2024 [47, 48] . Financial and insurance activities took 39% of it, up from 3% in 2024, while real estate's share fell to 45% from 73%; the UK (40%) and France (19%) were the main sources [47, 49] 1 The 2025-26 budget closed property purchases by non-citizens outside EDB schemes [50] .
Government lens
This is how capital reads Mauritius today, using the same numbers investors use.
3.3 Red flags investors will raise
1 Fiscal slippage. The FY2025/26 deficit overshot its target; debt is 87.8% of GDP [6, 8].
3.5 What strengthens Mauritius's case
Award the solar tender With bankable, published power purchase terms [54].
Investor lens
What the state has committed to, where it needs capital, and on what terms.
4.2 Where capital is needed
- Port: the Island Container Terminal, about US$1bn, under a government-to-government arrangement with India [7] . - Energy: about US$1.35bn for the 2030 renewables roadmap; solar, battery, floating solar and wind tenders [53, 54, 63] . - Climate resilience: water, drains and flood protection after recurrent flash floods [27] . - Public investment: capital spending ran 24.6% below budget in FY2025/26, so PPPs are being encouraged [6, 34] . - Chagos: outer-island development depends on the treaty entering into force [39] .
4.5 Policy direction and risk outlook
Fiscal consolidation will continue, but with a thin margin. The pension reform faces protests and legal challenges [64, 65] . The Chagos treaty signed in May 2025 is stalled: the UK paused it in April 2026 pending US support, and after President Trump called it a "terrible deal" on 22 September, the UK said it would rework it and would not make lease payments "at this stage" [39, 59] . The next general election is due by late 2029.
Where interests meet
8 opportunities where a stated need meets investor appetite: renewables, the financial centre and tourism are ready now
Methodology and data notes
65 statistical releases, official statements and published analyses drawn on for this brief