Namibia Country Intelligence Brief 2026
A stable, rand-anchored economy faces weak growth and high unemployment while major oil and hydrogen projects await decisions. The brief examines local processing, job creation and the need for settled investment rules.
Executive summary
Namibia stands as a stable, well-governed, rand-anchored economy with two very large projects still waiting for a final investment decision: TotalEnergies' Venus oil field, targeted for 2026 but held up by fiscal terms, and Hyphen's US$10bn green hydrogen project, targeted for 2027. Today's picture is softer. Growth was 1.7% in 2025, inflation has risen to 5.4%, debt is above 65% of GDP and more than a third of the labour force is unemployed. The government wants investors who process minerals locally, create jobs for young people and finance infrastructure without new sovereign debt. Investors want certainty on fiscal terms, the investment law and empowerment rules. What Namibia needs most is not new incentives but settled rules.
Key findings
Real GDP
3.8% (2024); 1.7% (2025); -0.5% (Q4 2025); 3.1% (Q1 2026, revised); 4.8% (Q2 2026) [1, 2, 11]
Inflation
5.4% (Sep 2026); core 4.0%; fuel 30.4% [3]
Reserves
N$57.1bn, 3.5 months of imports (end-Jul 2026) [6]
Public debt
N$174.6bn, 65.2% of GDP (Jan 2026); 88% domestic [7]
| Area | Indicator | Latest value |
|---|---|---|
| Size | Nominal GDP | About N$268bn in FY2025/26, roughly US$15bn [7] 1 |
| Growth | Real GDP | 3.8% (2024); 1.7% (2025); -0.5% (Q4 2025); 3.1% (Q1 2026, revised); 4.8% (Q2 2026) [1, 2, 11] |
| Outlook | IMF 2.0% (2026), 2.7% (2027); BoN 2.1%; Fitch 1.6% [17, 15, 16] | |
| Prices | Inflation | 5.4% (Sep 2026); core 4.0%; fuel 30.4% [3] |
| Rates | Repo rate | 6.75%, held 12 Aug 2026; prime lending rate 10.25% [4] |
| FX | N$ per US$ | 16.45 (16 Oct 2026); 1:1 peg to the rand [5] |
| External | Reserves | N$57.1bn, 3.5 months of imports (end-Jul 2026) [6] |
| Current account | Deficit of 13.1% of GDP in 2025 [18] | |
| Fiscal | FY2026/27 budget | N$104.1bn spending; overall deficit 5.5% of GDP [19, 20] 2 |
| Public debt | N$174.6bn, 65.2% of GDP (Jan 2026); 88% domestic [7] | |
| Ratings | Fitch / Moody's | BB- stable / B1 positive; no S&P rating [21, 22] |
| People | Population | 3.02 million (2023 census); 71% under 35 [9] |
| Unemployment | 36.9%; youth 44.4% (2023 survey) [9, 23] |
Economic snapshot
4.8% Real GDP growth in Q2 2026, the fastest since early 2024, after a 0.5% contraction in Q4 2025 [1, 10, 11]
Growth fell to 1.7% in 2025, the slowest since 2021, as diamond sales collapsed and gold output dipped while Otjikoto moved underground [2, 12] . Q2 2026 rebounded to 4.8%: agriculture grew 17.8% after good rains, and diamond cutting and polishing grew 76.5% from a low base [1, 13] . Every forecaster has cut its 2026 number since January; none includes oil production [14, 15, 16] .
Area: Size; Indicator: Nominal GDP; Latest value: About N$268bn in FY2025/26, roughly US$15bn [7] 1.
Area: Growth; Indicator: Real GDP; Latest value: 3.8% (2024); 1.7% (2025); -0.5% (Q4 2025); 3.1% (Q1 2026, revised); 4.8% (Q2 2026) [1, 2, 11].
Indicator: Outlook; Latest value: IMF 2.0% (2026), 2.7% (2027); BoN 2.1%; Fitch 1.6% [17, 15, 16].
Area: Prices; Indicator: Inflation; Latest value: 5.4% (Sep 2026); core 4.0%; fuel 30.4% [3].
Area: Rates; Indicator: Repo rate; Latest value: 6.75%, held 12 Aug 2026; prime lending rate 10.25% [4].
Area: FX; Indicator: N$ per US$; Latest value: 16.45 (16 Oct 2026); 1:1 peg to the rand [5].
Area: External; Indicator: Reserves; Latest value: N$57.1bn, 3.5 months of imports (end-Jul 2026) [6].
Indicator: Current account; Latest value: Deficit of 13.1% of GDP in 2025 [18].
Area: Fiscal; Indicator: FY2026/27 budget; Latest value: N$104.1bn spending; overall deficit 5.5% of GDP [19, 20] 2.
Indicator: Public debt; Latest value: N$174.6bn, 65.2% of GDP (Jan 2026); 88% domestic [7].
Area: Ratings; Indicator: Fitch / Moody's; Latest value: BB- stable / B1 positive; no S&P rating [21, 22].
Area: People; Indicator: Population; Latest value: 3.02 million (2023 census); 71% under 35 [9].
Indicator: Unemployment; Latest value: 36.9%; youth 44.4% (2023 survey) [9, 23].
1 Nominal GDP is derived from the Ministry of Finance debt figures (N$174.6bn = 65.2% of GDP); the US dollar value is indicative.
2 The overall deficit (N$15.8bn) includes spending outside the State Revenue Fund; Fund spending less revenue is about N$14.3bn, 5.0% of GDP [24] .
Inflation is back, and rates have turned
Inflation fell to 2.1% in March 2026, then rose for six months to 5.4% in September as fuel prices climbed 30.4% after the energy shock [3, 25]. The Bank of Namibia cut to 6.50% in October 2025, then raised the rate back to 6.75% on 17 June 2026; it held in August [26, 27, 4]. The South African Reserve Bank has since moved to 7.25%, 50 basis points above Namibia [28].
A tight budget, financed at home
Finance Minister Ericah Shafudah tabled the FY2026/27 budget, "People, Productivity and Prudence", on 26 February 2026: about N$104.1bn of spending and N$89.8bn of revenue [19, 36] . The overall deficit, which includes spending outside the State Revenue Fund, is N$15.8bn or 5.5% of GDP, down from 6.6%; within the Fund alone the gap is about N$14.3bn, 5.0% of GDP [20, 24] . Interest costs N$16.2bn, 5.7% of GDP, and Fitch expects interest to absorb 18% of revenue [7, 16] . The corporate tax rate for non-mining firms fell from 30% to 28%, and a 10% dividend tax was introduced [37, 7] .
Milestones in the past year
Date: 29 Oct 2025; Event: US$750m Eurobond repaid in full [40]; Why it matters: No external market dependence.
Trade and investment profile
$1.45bn FDI inflows in 2025, down from US$2.0bn in 2024 and US$2.3bn in 2023, led by mining and oil exploration [53]
Oil, hydrogen, mining and energy
Oil and gas. TotalEnergies says Venus is technically ready for a final investment decision in 2026, subject to agreeing fiscal terms with the government; it has slipped once already [50, 60]. TotalEnergies took over the Mopane discovery on 4 September 2026 with Galp, NAMCOR (10%) and Custos, and targets a 2028 decision [46, 61]. Shell wrote down about US$400m on its Graff find in January 2025 but resumed exploration in 2026 [62, 63]. Fitch expects first oil around 2031–32 [16].
Government lens
This is how capital reads Namibia today, using the same numbers investors use.
3.3 Red flags investors will raise
1 Low growth. 1.6–2.1% in 2026 against an NDP6 target of at least 7% [16, 15, 77]
3.5 What strengthens Namibia's case
Sign Venus in 2026 Publish the fiscal framework; Fitch names energy investment as an upgrade trigger [21].
Investor lens
What the state has committed to, where it needs capital, and on what terms.
4.2 Where capital is needed
- Oil and gas: supply bases at Walvis Bay and Lüderitz, services and gas-to-power ahead of first oil [50, 46]. - Green hydrogen: renewables, desalination, port and ammonia handling around Lüderitz [48]. - Minerals: local processing of lithium and other critical minerals; copper and zinc refining [67]. - Power: solar, wind and storage to cut electricity imports [68]. - Agriculture: irrigation, wheat, rice, horticulture and EU-grade beef [13]. - Logistics: corridor rail, dry ports and cold chain [49].
4.5 Policy direction and risk outlook
The direction is "open, but on Namibian terms": value addition, local content, empowerment and a growing state equity role (NAMCOR 10%, Hyphen 24%). The main risk is not hostility but delay: bills that stall, fiscal terms reopened before a final decision and licence refusals that signal tighter ownership rules [72, 44] . The macro risks are a rand shock, low SACU receipts, fuel prices and drought [84, 3] .
Where interests meet
8 opportunities where a stated need meets investor appetite: minerals, renewables, agriculture and local capital are ready now
Methodology and data notes
84 statistical releases, official statements and published analyses drawn on for this brief