Nigeria & Indonesia Trade Brief 2026
An energy-for-food exchange: Nigeria sells crude and cocoa, and buys palm oil and food-processing inputs. Reported surpluses totalled about $9.8bn across 2021–2024.
Executive summary
Structurally, this is a single-commodity surplus relationship. Two-way goods trade was $2.53bn in 2021, $4.32bn in 2022, $4.05bn in 2023 and $3.11bn in 2024. Indonesia ranked between 6th and 8th among Nigeria’s export destinations, absorbing 3.44% to 5.65% of Nigeria’s total exports, but only around 22nd among its suppliers, accounting for 0.80% to 1.07% of Nigerian imports. The export-to-import cover ratio ranged from 3.8x (2021) to 7.3x (2022).
Nigeria recorded a surplus in every year of the series. The Trade Explorer bilateral panel reports balances of +$1.5bn (2021), +$3.3bn (2022), +$2.9bn (2023) and +$2.1bn (2024), a cumulative surplus of approximately $9.8bn. Variance in the balance is almost entirely attributable to the export leg: imports from Indonesia moved within a $514.5m to $547.4m band, a range of just 6.4%.
Export concentration is extreme. Mineral fuels (Ch. 27) accounted for 95.4% to 96.5% of ranked exports in every year, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of the export basket was 0.91 to 0.93, against a threshold of 0.25 conventionally associated with high concentration. Cocoa (Ch. 18) is the only non-fuel line of scale ($69.6m to $116.7m). Indonesia absorbed 3.9% to 6.2% of Nigeria’s global fuel exports and, in 2023, 11.2% of its cocoa exports.
The import basket is consumption-weighted and increasingly food-linked. Animal or vegetable fats and oils (Ch. 15), predominantly palm oil, were the largest import line in every year, rising 27.6% to $167.6m. Indonesia’s share of Nigeria’s Ch. 15 imports rose from 15.3% to 33.7% while Nigeria’s total Ch. 15 imports contracted by 42%. Fats and miscellaneous edible preparations together rose from 32.9% to 44.1% of Indonesian imports. The import HHI of 0.11 to 0.15 indicates a materially more diversified basket than the export side.
The 2026 energy shock has repriced the export leg. Before the Iran war, an estimated 20% to 25% of Indonesia’s crude imports transited the Strait of Hormuz. Jakarta’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated in June that Indonesia is working extensively with Nigeria, Algeria and Angola on crude supply; Indonesian statistics show Nigeria supplied roughly $2.4bn of crude. Pertamina has signalled interest in Nigeria’s 2026 licensing round. On the import side, Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel mandate (effective July 2026) and 12.5% crude palm oil export levy raise the landed cost of Nigeria’s largest import line from Indonesia.
The relationship is an energy-for-food exchange with a large and persistent Nigerian surplus. Its export leg is a function of Indonesian crude procurement and Brent pricing; its import leg is a function of Nigerian food-processing demand and Indonesian palm oil policy. The Hormuz disruption strengthens Nigeria’s position as a non-Gulf supplier to Pertamina, but the absence of a preferential trade agreement, proposed in 2013 and still at the study stage, and the lack of term supply contracts leave both legs exposed to spot-market and policy volatility.
Key findings
A surplus in every year
Reported balances were +$1.5bn in 2021, +$3.3bn in 2022, +$2.9bn in 2023 and +$2.1bn in 2024 — approximately $9.8bn cumulatively.
Crude determines export earnings
Mineral fuels supplied 95.4% to 96.5% of ranked exports. At implied 2024 volumes, a $10-per-barrel Brent movement represents about $311m in annual export value.
Cocoa is the main non-fuel channel
Cocoa exports to Indonesia ranged from $69.6m to $116.7m. They fell 16.3% to $91.4m in 2024 as Indonesia’s share of Nigeria’s cocoa receipts fell to 3.7%.
Palm oil gained share as Nigeria’s market shrank
Fats and oils imports from Indonesia rose 27.6% to $167.6m. Indonesia’s indicative share of Nigeria’s Chapter 15 imports increased from 15.3% to 33.7%; the source treemap label was truncated, so these shares are indicative.
Food-processing inputs keep imports resilient
Fats and oils plus miscellaneous edible preparations rose from 32.9% to 44.1% of imports from Indonesia. Total imports stayed within $514.5m to $547.4m despite wider Nigerian demand compression.
Policy reprices both sides of the relationship
The September 2026 assessment links Indonesian crude diversification to stronger demand for Nigerian supply, while Indonesia’s B50 mandate and 12.5% palm-oil export levy raise edible-oil costs.
A trade framework remains unfinished
The bilateral preferential trade agreement proposed in 2013 and the Indonesia–ECOWAS track initiated in 2017 were still not in force at the report’s September 2026 assessment.
| Year | Nigeria → Indonesia | Indonesia → Nigeria | Total trade | Balance (panel) | Cover | Share of Nigeria’s exports | Share of Nigeria’s imports |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $2.0bn | $525.0m | $2.52bn | +$1.5bn | 3.8x | 3.44% | 0.92% |
| 2022 | $3.8bn | $520.1m | $4.32bn | +$3.3bn | 7.3x | 5.31% | 0.80% |
| 2023 | $3.5bn | $547.4m | $4.05bn | +$2.9bn | 6.4x | 5.65% | 0.81% |
| 2024 | $2.6bn | $514.5m | $3.11bn | +$2.1bn | 5.1x | 4.06% | 1.07% |
| Product (HS chapter) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mineral fuels, oils and distillation products (Ch. 27) | $2.00bn | $3.60bn | $3.30bn | $2.50bn | 95.4% to 96.5% of ranked exports |
| Cocoa and cocoa preparations (Ch. 18) | $69.6m | $116.7m | $109.2m | $91.4m | Second line every year; peak $116.7m (2022) |
| Aluminium and articles thereof (Ch. 76) | $8.0m | $14.3m | $8.9m | $15.2m | Third line in 3 of 4 years |
| Fertilizers (Ch. 31) | n/a | $35.5m | n/a | n/a | 2022 only (urea price spike) |
| Other ranked products (residual, 6 to 7 further lines a year) | $4.0m | $5.2m | $2.7m | $1.1m | Each line at or below $3.0m; vehicles, ores, ships, spices |
| TOTAL (ranked products shown) | $2.08bn | $3.77bn | $3.42bn | $2.61bn | 97.7% to 104.1% of reported total |
| Product (HS chapter) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Animal or vegetable fats and oils, mainly palm oil (Ch. 15) | $131.3m | $144.5m | $158.6m | $167.6m | First line every year; up 27.6% |
| Paper and paperboard articles (Ch. 48) | $83.1m | $91.3m | $116.8m | $33.5m | Volatile: peak $116.8m (2023), −71% in 2024 |
| Miscellaneous edible preparations (Ch. 21) | $41.2m | $50.0m | $51.5m | $59.2m | Present all 4 years; up 43.7% |
| Pharmaceutical products (Ch. 30) | $39.9m | $41.6m | $40.5m | $40.7m | Stable at $39.9m to $41.6m |
| Plastics and articles thereof (Ch. 39) | $20.9m | $21.7m | $12.0m | $31.3m | Present all 4 years; up 49.8% |
| Electrical machinery and electronics (Ch. 85) | $38.2m | $37.7m | $28.5m | $23.0m | Present all 4 years; down 39.8% |
| Other ranked products (residual, 4 further lines a year) | $91.1m | $64.2m | $66.6m | $70.6m | Machinery, organic chemicals, cosmetics, vehicles, steel articles |
| TOTAL (ranked products shown) | $445.7m | $451.0m | $474.5m | $425.9m | 82.8% to 86.7% of reported total |
| Factor | Status (September 2026) | Implication for the relationship |
|---|---|---|
| Indonesian crude sourcing | About 20% to 25% of crude imports previously via Hormuz; Jakarta “working extensively” with Nigeria, Algeria, Angola; Nigeria about $2.4bn of crude | Primary driver of Nigeria’s exports and surplus |
| Oil prices and Hormuz | Brent $96.84 to $101.61 (23 to 24 Sept); Saudi East-West pipeline restarted | Each $10/bbl is about $311m of export value at 2024 volumes |
| Competing African supply | Angola about $1.9bn of crude to Indonesia; Algerian cargoes since Dec 2025 | Nigerian grades compete on differential and freight, not just geography |
| Nigerian output and refining | Crude about 1.5m bpd (Aug), at OPEC quota; Dangote at 700,000 b/d capacity | Caps exportable volumes |
| Upstream linkage | Pertamina interest in 2026 licensing round; NUPRC talks | Potential shift from spot cargoes to equity-linked supply |
| Palm oil policy | B50 from July 2026; export levy 12.5%; Sept duty $148/t plus levy $125.94/t | Raises landed cost of Nigeria’s largest import line |
| Cocoa market | NG bean exports +18% y/y in July; ICE stocks at 2-year high; El Niño risk | Price-driven swings in the main non-oil export line |
| Trade architecture | Bilateral PTA proposed 2013; ECOWAS track since 2017; not notified to WTO | No tariff preference for non-oil trade |
| Commercial calendar | NIITF 2026, Jakarta, 20 to 21 Oct; Trade Expo Indonesia 2026 | Near-term pipeline for investment and offtake deals |
| Nigerian macro and elections | MPR 23% (22 Sept); inflation 15.39%; reserves about $55bn; poll 16 Jan 2027 | Supports import demand; policy-continuity risk |
Bilateral trade snapshot
The bilateral series exhibits two distinct properties: high variance on the export leg and near-zero variance on the import leg. Nigerian exports to Indonesia rose 90.0% from $2.0bn in 2021 to $3.8bn in 2022, declined 7.9% to $3.5bn in 2023 and a further 25.7% to $2.6bn in 2024. Imports from Indonesia were $525.0m, $520.1m, $547.4m and $514.5m, a 2021 to 2024 change of −2.0%, against a 16.1% contraction in Nigeria’s total imports over the same period. Total trade peaked at $4.32bn in 2022 and stood at $3.11bn in 2024.
The balance tracks the export leg almost one-for-one. Reported balances of +$1.5bn, +$3.3bn, +$2.9bn and +$2.1bn yield a cumulative 2021 to 2024 surplus of approximately $9.8bn. (Balances are quoted as reported in the Trade Explorer’s bilateral panel. Headline exports are displayed rounded to $0.1bn, so a balance computed from the headline flows may differ from the panel value by up to $0.05bn.) A price-volume decomposition, dividing the fuel line by annual average Brent, implies crude volumes of roughly 28 million barrels in 2021, 36 million in 2022, 40 million in 2023 and 31 million in 2024, approximately 77,000 to 110,000 barrels per day. The 2023 decline in value therefore reflected lower prices on rising volumes; the 2024 decline reflected a fall in volumes of about 22%.
Measured against Nigeria’s aggregate trade, the relationship is asymmetric in weight. Indonesia’s share of Nigeria’s exports rose from 3.44% in 2021 to a peak of 5.65% in 2023 before easing to 4.06% in 2024, placing it 8th, 6th, 6th and 7th among destinations. Its share of Nigeria’s imports was stable at 0.80% to 1.07%, and the 2024 increase to 1.07% reflects contraction in the denominator rather than growth in Indonesian supply. For Nigeria, Indonesia is a top-ten crude customer and a second-tier supplier.
Export profile: crude concentration and cocoa
Mineral fuels, oils and distillation products (Ch. 27), overwhelmingly Nigerian crude supplied to Pertamina’s refining system, were valued at $2.0bn (2021), $3.6bn (2022), $3.3bn (2023) and $2.5bn (2024), equivalent to 95.4% to 96.5% of ranked exports. The resulting export HHI of 0.91 to 0.93 places the relationship at the extreme end of commodity concentration. Indonesia absorbed 3.9% of Nigeria’s global fuel exports in 2021, 5.7% in 2022, 6.2% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024. At 2024 volumes, a $10/bbl change in Brent translates into an estimated $311m change in annual export value, which is larger than the entire non-fuel export basket.
Import profile: palm oil and food-processing inputs
The import leg is anchored in food and food-processing inputs. Animal or vegetable fats and oils (Ch. 15), predominantly crude and refined palm oil and fractions, rose monotonically from $131.3m in 2021 to $167.6m in 2024 (+27.6%), increasing from 25.0% to 32.6% of total imports from Indonesia. Over the same period Nigeria’s total Ch. 15 imports fell from $858m to $498m, lifting Indonesia’s share of that market from 15.3% to 33.7%. Miscellaneous edible preparations (Ch. 21), which include seasonings and food-processing intermediates, rose 43.7% to $59.2m. Combined, the two food-linked chapters rose from 32.9% to 44.1% of the Indonesian import bill.
Bilateral relationship assessment
The two legs respond to different shocks. The export leg is a function of Indonesian refinery procurement and global crude prices; the import leg is a function of Nigerian food-processing demand and Indonesian palm oil policy. The most significant structural development on the import side is Indonesia’s rising dominance of Nigeria’s fats and oils imports. Indonesian Ch. 15 supply rose by $36.3m between 2021 and 2024 while Nigeria’s total Ch. 15 imports fell by $360m, implying substitution toward Indonesian origin as other suppliers lost share. Indonesia’s share of Nigeria’s paper imports, by contrast, peaked at 17.9% in 2023 and reverted to 7.1% in 2024.
Trade potential: supply contracts, processing and tariffs
Three gaps are identifiable. The first is contractual. Nigeria’s crude sales to Indonesia remain largely cargo-by-cargo; implied volumes fell by about 22% in 2024 despite Nigeria’s position as one of Pertamina’s largest suppliers. A term supply arrangement, or an upstream equity link through Pertamina’s participation in the 2026 licensing round, would reduce volume variance on a flow worth $2bn to $4bn a year. The second is in agro-processing. Nigeria exports raw cocoa beans to Indonesia and imports palm oil, seasonings and food intermediates from it; both flows are candidates for co-investment in processing capacity inside Nigeria, particularly in cocoa grinding and palm oil refining and fractionation. The third is tariff architecture. With no PTA in force, Nigerian non-oil exports enter Indonesia on MFN terms and Indonesian goods enter Nigeria at the ECOWAS Common External Tariff; a narrowly scoped PTA covering cocoa, palm oil and processing equipment would address the lines that account for most of the non-oil trade.
Trade framework and institutional channels
Nigeria and Indonesia have no free-trade or preferential trade agreement. A bilateral PTA was agreed in principle in February 2013, when the two trade ministers set a $5bn trade target, and in 2017 the process was broadened to an Indonesia-ECOWAS PTA track. The Asian Development Bank’s integration database still classifies the Indonesia-Nigeria PTA as proposed and under study, not notified to the WTO. Trade therefore runs on WTO most-favoured-nation terms, with Nigeria applying the ECOWAS Common External Tariff as amended by its 2026 Fiscal Policy Measures. Both countries are members of the D-8 Organisation for Economic Cooperation, and since January 2025 Indonesia has been a full BRICS member and Nigeria a BRICS partner country, providing additional ministerial channels.
Crude allocation under the Hormuz constraint
Indonesia produces roughly 600,000 barrels a day and imports the balance of its refinery feedstock. Before the 2026 conflict, an estimated 20% to 25% of those crude imports transited the Strait of Hormuz, and two Pertamina International Shipping tankers were stranded in the Gulf when transit was restricted. Pertamina’s president director stated in March that the company was sourcing from Africa, the United States and other origins to protect stock cover. By June, Deputy Foreign Minister Arif Havas Oegroseno described Indonesia as working extensively with Algeria, Nigeria and Angola; Indonesian Central Statistics Agency data showed Nigeria supplying about $2.4bn of crude and Angola $1.9bn. Indonesian-reported data for calendar 2025 record crude imports from Nigeria of $2.45bn, broadly in line with the 2024 BACI value.
Palm oil: biodiesel, export levies and Nigeria’s edible-oil bill
Indonesian palm oil policy is now the principal determinant of the import leg. The CPO export levy was raised to 12.5% of the reference price from 1 March 2026 under PMK 9/2026, and the B50 biodiesel mandate took effect in July 2026, having been revived after the crude price spike. For September 2026 the Ministry of Trade set the CPO reference price at $1,007.51/t, implying an export duty of $148/t and a levy of $125.94/t, a combined fiscal wedge of about $274/t, or 27% of the reference price. Industry estimates suggest Indonesia can still export about 22 million tonnes under B50, so supply to Nigeria is not at risk, but its landed cost is structurally higher. Indonesian-reported exports of fats and oils to Nigeria were $290.2m in 2025, against a BACI value of $167.6m in 2024, indicating that the Ch. 15 line expanded materially in value terms in 2025.
Cocoa prices and Indonesian grinding demand
The cocoa line is governed by a market in transition from the 2024 price spike. Supply signals turned bearish through mid-2026: Nigeria’s cocoa bean exports rose 30% year on year in June and 18% in July, to 16,052 tonnes, and ICE cocoa inventories reached a two-year high in August. Offsetting risks are material: an El Niño event expected to be among the strongest in 75 years, a 2026/27 crop estimate from the world’s second-largest producer 13% below the prior season, and a StoneX forecast of a 2026/27 global surplus of just 25,000 tonnes. For Indonesian grinders, lower prices should restore some of the Nigerian allocation lost in 2024; for Nigeria, cocoa export value to Indonesia is likely to decline in dollar terms even if volumes recover.
Nigeria: monetary reset, refining and the election cycle
Nigeria’s macroeconomic conditions support import demand for Indonesian intermediates. Real GDP grew 4.43% in the second quarter of 2026 and headline inflation eased to 15.39% in August. On 22 September the CBN reduced the monetary policy rate by 350 basis points to 23%, describing the move as an operational reset to strengthen transmission; external reserves stood at about $55bn and the naira near ₦1,331/$. Lower borrowing costs and FX stability favour Nigerian food processors and packaging manufacturers, the principal buyers of Indonesian palm oil, seasonings and paper. On the export side, Dangote’s rising crude intake (intra-Nigerian petroleum product shipments reached 211,000 b/d in the second quarter of 2026) marginally tightens the crude available for export. The presidential election on 16 January 2027 introduces policy-continuity risk for FX management and the 2026 tariff reforms.
Our assessment: scenarios for 2025 to 2027
SysIN’s base case, built from the 2024 product composition and explicit price, volume and growth drivers (with assumptions described in the PDF), calibrates 2025 to Indonesian-reported data: Nigerian exports of about $2.55bn, with Brent averaging roughly $69 and crude volumes 14% above 2024, and imports of about $632m, driven by a 60% rise in the fats and oils line. For 2026, the model assumes crude volumes 45% above 2024 as Pertamina diversifies away from Hormuz, and Brent averaging $88, lifting exports to about $4.04bn. Exports ease to about $3.18bn in 2027 as Brent settles near $80 and volumes hold 25% above 2024. Cocoa export value declines 25% in 2026 on price normalisation. Imports rise to about $689m and $734m. The surplus widens from $2.1bn in 2024 to about $3.36bn in 2026 and $2.45bn in 2027, and two-way trade reaches about $4.73bn in 2026, above the 2022 peak. These are scenario estimates, not reported data.
Priorities for a trade ministry or policy body
The priority is to institutionalise the crude relationship while Indonesia’s diversification incentive is at its peak. Options include a government-to-government term supply framework between NNPC and Pertamina, structured facilitation of Pertamina’s participation in the 2026 licensing round, and a joint statistical reconciliation exercise to establish an agreed baseline before new trade targets are announced. The PTA process should be revived in a narrow form, prioritising tariff treatment for cocoa, cocoa products, palm oil and processing machinery. NIITF 2026 on 20 to 21 October is the immediate venue to table these items, and the BRICS and D-8 channels provide ministerial follow-through.
Priorities for a commercial institution or investor
The near-term flow is trade finance, freight and price-risk management for Indonesia-bound crude cargoes while the Hormuz premium persists, stress-tested against a downside in which Brent returns to the low $60s. The more durable opportunities sit in processing: edible-oil refining and fractionation in Nigeria to capture value from imported Indonesian CPO under a higher levy regime; cocoa grinding to supply Asian buyers with intermediate products rather than beans; and food-intermediate and packaging manufacturing that serves Indonesian-linked consumer-goods producers already operating in Nigeria. Commitments made before February 2027 should price in election-period FX and trade-policy risk.
Data sources and limitations
Bilateral flows come from OEC BACI (Trade Explorer, UN Comtrade harmonised), in USD, and cover goods only. Products follow Harmonised System chapter-level classifications. The ranked lists are capped at ten lines each year, covering 97.7% to 104.1% of reported exports and 82.8% to 86.7% of imports.
Disclaimer
This report is produced by SysIN Insights solely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The analytical views expressed reflect the professional judgment of SysIN analysts based on publicly available information, including official trade statistics, company and government disclosures, and published research and news as cited. Nothing in this report should be construed as a personalised recommendation or as legal, tax, or regulatory advice. Recipients should conduct their own independent due diligence and consult a qualified and appropriately licensed adviser before making any investment or policy decision.
Frequently asked questions
Did Nigeria record a trade surplus with Indonesia?
Yes, in every year from 2021 to 2024. The reported panel balances total approximately $9.8bn, including +$2.1bn in 2024.
What does Nigeria export to Indonesia?
Crude dominates: mineral fuels supplied 95.4% to 96.5% of ranked exports. Cocoa is the only non-fuel line of substantial scale, with smaller aluminium and occasional fertilizer shipments.
What does Nigeria import from Indonesia?
Palm oil and other fats and oils led imports each year. Other major inputs include edible preparations, paper, medicines, plastics and electrical equipment.
Is a preferential trade agreement in force?
At the September 2026 assessment, the bilateral PTA proposed in 2013 and the Indonesia–ECOWAS track begun in 2017 remained unfinished. Trade ran on most-favoured-nation terms.
Are the 2026 and 2027 forecasts observed trade data?
No. The base case estimates a surplus of about $3.36bn in 2026 and $2.45bn in 2027. These are SysIN scenarios, distinct from the reported 2021–2024 series.