Nigeria & Togo Trade Brief 2026
A circular energy corridor anchored by the Port of Lomé — mapping Nigeria–Togo crude and refined petroleum flows, the 2023 reverse-fuel anomaly, and the structural non-fuel export base.
Executive summary
The Nigeria–Togo bilateral trade corridor is defined by a circular energy economy, a deep transit-hub relationship, and one of the most analytically striking single-year bilateral reversals in West Africa’s formal trade data. In 2021 and 2022, Nigeria exported $441m–$668m in mineral fuels to Togo, generating comfortable surpluses of $470.6m and $708.8m respectively. In 2023, Nigerian fuel exports to Togo collapsed by 87% to $87.3m — while Togo simultaneously exported $111.4m in mineral fuels back to Nigeria. The result: a near-zero $7.7m surplus in 2023, the most compressed bilateral balance in the dataset. In 2024, the corridor snapped back to a $655.6m Nigerian export with a $633.6m surplus. No other bilateral corridor in this brief series exhibits this degree of year-to-year volatility.
The energy paradox: crude flows west, refined products flow east — and then reverse. Togo purchases crude petroleum worth approximately $498m annually (OEC, 2024 data), primarily from Nigeria, which it processes at the STIR refinery in Lomé (opened 1978, producing refined petroleum for domestic use and export). OEC confirms Nigeria is Togo’s third-largest import source at $662m in 2024, with crude petroleum as the dominant product. In 2023, Togo’s refinery output appears to have generated a significant reverse fuel flow of $111.4m in refined products exported back to Nigeria — a plausible consequence of Togo’s position as a refining hub combined with Nigeria’s domestic refined product deficit (pre-Dangote). The 2023 pattern is the clearest expression in this dataset of the West African petroleum circular trade that characterises several bilateral corridors in this region.
Beyond fuel: a persistent, commercially significant non-fuel exchange. Togo exports Perfumery & Cosmetics to Nigeria consistently across all four years: $14m (2021), $2.3m (2022), $3.6m (2023), $525k (2024) — though with high volatility. Raw Hides and Skin appear in three of four years at $2.3–4.3m, reflecting Togo’s agro-pastoral export base. On the Nigerian export side, the non-fuel basket is modest but persistent: Aluminium Articles (all 4 years), Salt/Cement (all 4 years), Tobacco (all 4 years), Glass & Glassware (all 4 years), Footwear (all 4 years), and Plastics (multiple years). These are the structural building blocks of the corridor beneath the energy volatility.
The Port of Lomé is the strategic context. Togo’s economy is anchored by the Port of Lomé — the only natural deep-water port in West Africa, ranked 93rd globally in the Lloyd’s List Top 100 Ports 2024, and the only Sub-Saharan African port in that ranking. The port generates approximately 70% of Togo’s GDP and over 75% of national tax revenues. Nigeria is Togo’s third-largest import source. The bilateral trade relationship between Nigeria and Togo is therefore not merely a country-to-country commercial relationship: it is a supply chain relationship between West Africa’s largest oil producer and West Africa’s premier regional logistics hub.
The Nigeria–Togo corridor is defined by a volatile energy loop — Nigerian crude flowing to Togo’s STIR refinery, and refined products periodically flowing back — layered over a thin, persistent non-fuel exchange in aluminium, cement, tobacco, cosmetics, and hides. The 2023 bilateral near-parity ($7.7m surplus) is the most analytically significant single-year data point: it reflects the circular petroleum economy at its most symmetrical. The Dangote Refinery’s ramp-up is the most consequential forward variable, with the potential to reduce Nigeria’s crude export surplus to Togo and reduce its refined product imports simultaneously.
Key findings
Bilateral trade driven by circular energy economy and transit hub relationship.
The Nigeria–Togo corridor is characterized by a unique circular energy loop where Nigerian crude flows to Togo's STIR refinery, and refined products occasionally flow back to Nigeria, alongside Togo's role as a major regional logistics hub.
Significant single-year bilateral trade reversal in 2023.
Nigerian fuel exports to Togo collapsed by 87% in 2023 to $87.3m, while Togo's fuel exports to Nigeria surged by 448.8% to $111.4m, resulting in a near-zero $7.7m Nigerian surplus, the most compressed balance in the dataset.
Port of Lomé is a critical strategic context for the bilateral relationship.
The Port of Lomé, West Africa's only natural deep-water port, generates approximately 70% of Togo's GDP and over 75% of its national tax revenues, making the bilateral trade a key supply chain relationship for Togo's re-export and transit economy.
Persistent non-fuel trade basket underlies energy volatility.
Beneath the volatile energy trade, a consistent exchange of non-fuel products exists, including Nigerian exports of Aluminium Articles, Salt/Cement, and Tobacco, and Togolese exports of Perfumery & Cosmetics and Raw Hides and Skin.
Dangote Refinery ramp-up is a key forward variable.
The operationalization of the Dangote Refinery has the potential to significantly alter the bilateral energy trade by reducing Nigeria's crude exports to STIR and its refined product imports from Togo, compressing both sides of the energy loop.
Togo acts as both a crude importer and refined petroleum exporter.
Togo imports crude oil predominantly from Nigeria for its STIR refinery, then exports refined petroleum products globally and, as seen in 2023, occasionally back to Nigeria, confirming its role as a refining hub.
Potential for growth in cement/construction materials and raw hides sectors.
The cement and construction materials corridor, driven by Nigerian export capacity and Togo's infrastructure needs, and the growing raw hides trade offer commercially grounded opportunities for bilateral growth.
| Product | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mineral Fuels, Oils, Waxes & Distillates (Ch. 27) | 441.1 | 668.5 | 87.3 | 585.9 | Structural — all 4 yrs, volatile |
| Salt, Sulphur, Cement, Lime & Plaster (Ch. 25) | 28.5 | 22.1 | 11 | 15.3 | Persistent all 4 yrs, declining |
| Aluminium Articles (Ch. 76) | 9.8 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 7.6 | Persistent all 4 yrs, stable |
| Tobacco & Substitutes (Ch. 24) | 5.8 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | Persistent all 4 yrs, declining |
| Plastics & Articles Thereof (Ch. 39) | 2.2 | 0.9 | $0 | $0 | Dropped out 2023–24 |
| Glass & Glassware (Ch. 70) | 2 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | Persistent all 4 yrs, stable |
| Product | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mineral Fuels, Oils, Waxes & Distillates (Ch. 27) | 6.6 | 20.3 | 111.4 | 12.1 | Volatile — 2023 spike |
| Perfumery & Cosmetics (Ch. 33) | 14 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 0.5 | Persistent, sharply declining |
| Raw Hides & Skin (Non-Fur) (Ch. 41) | 0.7 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 4.3 | Persistent 3 yrs, growing |
| Plastics & Articles Thereof (Ch. 39) | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | Persistent all 4 yrs |
| Sugars & Confectioneries (Ch. 17) | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | $0 | Persistent 3 yrs, absent 2024 |
| Machinery, Mech. Appliances & Parts (Ch. 84) | 1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | Persistent, declining |
BILATERAL TRADE SNAPSHOT
The 2021–2024 period captures two distinct energy trade regimes for this corridor. The 2021–2022 phase is a high-volume, Nigeria-dominant energy supply period: Nigerian crude and petroleum products flowing to Togo at $441–668m annually, with Togo’s reverse fuel exports confined to $6.6–20.3m. The 2022 peak of $740.5m in Nigerian exports reflects both the volume expansion and the global energy price spike following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which elevated petroleum commodity prices across all bilateral energy corridors in USD terms.
The 2023 corridor inversion is the structural break point of the dataset. Nigerian fuel exports collapsed from $668.5m (2022) to $87.3m — an 86.9% single-year fall. Simultaneously, Togo’s fuel exports to Nigeria surged from $20.3m to $111.4m — a 448.8% increase. The combination produced a bilateral fuel balance that briefly favoured Togo ($24.1m net fuel surplus for Togo), compressing the total bilateral trade surplus to just $7.7m. The most plausible explanation is a supply-demand shift linked to Nigeria’s fuel subsidy removal on 29 May 2023: with domestic fuel prices liberalised, the economics of Nigerian refined product imports changed, and Togo’s STIR refinery-produced products found a window for export into Nigeria. Simultaneously, Nigeria’s crude export volumes to Togo may have been redirected as global refinery economics shifted.
The 2024 reversion to a $655.6m Nigerian export and $633.6m surplus is equally dramatic — a 404.7% increase in Nigerian exports and an 82% fall in Togolese fuel exports back to Nigeria. This normalisation likely reflects the initial Dangote Refinery operations beginning to absorb Nigerian crude domestically, Nigeria’s export rerouting, and the post-subsidy stabilisation of domestic fuel pricing dynamics.
EXPORT PROFILE
Mineral fuels (HS Ch. 27) overwhelmingly dominates Nigerian exports to Togo, ranging from $87.3m (2023 anomaly) to $668.5m (2022 peak) and accounting for 67–90% of total annual exports in non-anomaly years. OEC confirms Nigeria as Togo’s third-largest import source at $662m in 2024, with crude petroleum ($498m globally) and refined products as primary purchase categories. The bilateral fuel relationship is structurally grounded in Togo’s STIR refinery’s documented purchase of Nigerian crude, confirmed by the UK Export Council’s Togo Trade Profile, which states Togo’s crude oil imports of $594m in 2022 came ‘predominantly from nearby Nigeria and South Africa.’ The 2023 collapse to $87.3m is therefore not a structural unwinding but a year-specific event requiring contextualisation.
IMPORT PROFILE
The import side of the Nigeria–Togo corridor is structurally thin in normal years — averaging $25–30m outside of the 2023 anomaly — but analytically rich in what it reveals about Togo’s productive and re-export capacity. In 2021 and 2022, the import basket is led by Perfumery & Cosmetics (Ch. 33) at $14m (2021) and $2.3m (2022), representing Togo’s most commercially distinctive bilateral export to Nigeria. Togo is a significant producer of beauty and cosmetic preparations — OEC confirms Perfumery & Cosmetics as a consistent component of Togo’s global export basket at $52.6m globally in 2024 — and its export to Nigeria at $14m in 2021 is the single largest non-fuel Togolese export in the dataset. The sharp decline to $2.3m–3.6m in 2022–2023 and $525k in 2024 is the most significant import-side contraction in the dataset after the fuel reversal and requires investigation: it may reflect competition from cheaper Asian cosmetics in the Nigerian market, a change in trade routing (cosmetics entering Nigeria via other ports), or a production disruption.
The Circular Petroleum Economy
The defining structural feature of the Nigeria–Togo bilateral corridor is a circular energy trade. Nigeria — an OPEC crude producer — exports crude petroleum and petroleum products to Togo, where the STIR refinery (Société Togolaise de Raffinerie) processes crude into refined products for domestic consumption and export. In normal years, the direction is heavily asymmetric: Nigeria supplies crude to STIR, and the refined products primarily serve Togo’s domestic market. In 2023, the direction partially reversed: Togo’s $111.4m in refined fuel exports to Nigeria exceeded Nigeria’s total fuel exports to Togo ($87.3m), making 2023 the only year in the dataset where Togo was the net fuel supplier in this corridor.
Port of Lomé
The bilateral relationship cannot be understood without reference to the Port of Lomé. As West Africa’s only natural deep-water port and the only Sub-Saharan African port in the Lloyd’s List Global Top 100 (ranked 93rd in 2024), Lomé serves as the primary maritime gateway for several landlocked West African countries and as a major regional transshipment hub. The port generates approximately 70% of Togo’s GDP and over 75% of national tax revenues. Nigeria, as Togo’s third-largest import source, is supplying the inputs — crude, cement, aluminium, manufactured goods — that flow through or into this hub. The bilateral trade relationship is therefore partly a direct commercial relationship and partly a supply chain for Togo’s re-export and transit economy.
Trade Potential and Forward Opportunities
Three commercially grounded opportunities are identifiable from the dataset. First, the cement and construction materials corridor: Salt, Cement and Lime (Ch. 25) at $11–28.5m annually reflects Nigerian cement export capacity meeting Togo’s domestic construction demand. As Togo expands infrastructure under its National Development Plan, and as Dangote Cement’s regional export strategy develops, this corridor has structural growth potential. Second, the raw hides and leather corridor: the growing trajectory in Raw Hides exports from Togo ($4.3m, 2024 high) positions this as a supply chain opportunity for Nigeria’s leather processing sector, which imports hides for footwear and leather goods manufacturing. Third, the phosphate-fertilizer linkage: Togo is among the world’s top producers of calcium phosphate (ranked by OEC among Togo’s top exports at $360m globally in 2024) — a key fertilizer input. Nigeria’s Dangote Fertilizer plant (3 million metric tonnes urea annual capacity) and Togo’s phosphate surplus create the structural conditions for a complementary supply chain, but this has not yet materialised in the bilateral data.
Togo: Economic Profile
Togo’s GDP was approximately $9.8bn in 2024, with real GDP growth of 5.3% — moderating from a 6.1% average across 2021–2023 (IMF/World Bank). Growth has been driven by three primary sectors: agriculture (cotton, cocoa, coffee, cashew exports), Port of Lomé trade and logistics activity, and industrial/infrastructure investment including the Adétikopé Industrial Platform (AIP). Exports and imports together represent more than 60% of GDP, making Togo one of the most trade-open economies in the region. Inflation eased from 2.9% in 2024 to under 1% by September 2025. Togo uses the CFA franc (XOF), pegged to the euro, providing monetary stability and making it less susceptible to the currency volatility that characterises naira-priced bilateral trade statistics.
Political Context: The Gnassingbé Dynasty and the 2024 Constitutional Transition
Togo has been governed by the Gnassingbé family for 58 years: Gnassingbé Eyadéma from 1967 to 2005, succeeded by his son Faure Gnassingbé from 2005 to the present. In May 2024, Togo underwent a significant constitutional transformation: a new Fifth Republic structure shifted executive power from a directly elected president to a ‘President of the Council of Ministers’ elected by parliament. With Faure Gnassingbé’s party, the Union pour la République (UNIR), controlling 108 of 113 National Assembly seats as of April 2024 elections, this constitutional change effectively enables the continuation of UNIR’s political dominance under a new institutional framework. A Senate was inaugurated in February 2025 with 61 members (41 elected indirectly, 20 appointed). For the bilateral Nigeria–Togo relationship, this political stability — while contested domestically — provides institutional continuity in the trade and investment environment.
The STIR Refinery and the Bilateral Energy Loop
The Société Togolaise de Raffinerie (STIR) in Lomé, opened in 1978, is the institutional centrepiece of the bilateral energy relationship. STIR processes imported crude — primarily from Nigeria and South Africa, as confirmed by the UK Export Council’s Togo Trade Profile — and produces refined petroleum products for domestic distribution and export. In 2022, Togo’s crude oil imports were valued at $594m and its refined petroleum exports at over $1bn globally, confirming a net positive refining margin in that year. The IEA notes that Togo did not have domestic crude oil production (the IEA reports ‘no data’ for Togo’s crude oil production), making it structurally dependent on crude imports for its refinery’s operation. This structural dependence on Nigerian crude (among other sources) is the bedrock of the bilateral energy trade.
On the Trajectory (2025–2027 Outlook)
The base-case scenario for 2025–2027 is a gradually stabilising bilateral corridor as Dangote’s refinery output increases Nigeria’s domestic petroleum product supply and reduces both Nigerian crude exports to STIR and Nigeria’s refined product imports from Togo. The 2024 reversion to a $655.6m Nigerian export surplus is unlikely to be the new steady state; it likely reflects a post-2023 correction and Dangote’s early-stage partial operations. Over 2025–2027, as Dangote moves toward full capacity, Nigerian fuel exports to Togo may moderate toward the $300–450m range as domestic crude absorption increases.
For the Reader's Action
For a trade ministry or policy body: the priority is understanding the 2023 energy reversal at a sub-chapter level. Whether Nigeria’s 2023 fuel imports from Togo were crude, distillates, or refined petroleum products carries significant policy implications for the Dangote impact analysis and for the bilateral energy relationship’s regulatory framework under the ECOWAS Energy Protocol.
Frequently asked questions
What defines the Nigeria-Togo bilateral trade corridor?
The Nigeria-Togo bilateral trade corridor is defined by a circular energy economy, a deep transit-hub relationship via the Port of Lomé, and significant year-to-year volatility, particularly in fuel trade.
What happened to Nigeria's fuel exports to Togo in 2023?
In 2023, Nigerian fuel exports to Togo collapsed by 87% to $87.3m, down from $668.5m in 2022. Simultaneously, Togo's fuel exports to Nigeria surged by 448.8% to $111.4m, compressing Nigeria's bilateral trade surplus to just $7.7m.
Why is the Port of Lomé important to the Nigeria-Togo relationship?
The Port of Lomé is crucial because it is West Africa's only natural deep-water port, generates approximately 70% of Togo's GDP and over 75% of national tax revenues, and serves as a major regional transshipment hub through which Nigeria supplies inputs to Togo's re-export and transit economy.
What non-fuel products are consistently traded between Nigeria and Togo?
Consistent non-fuel trade includes Nigerian exports of Aluminium Articles, Salt/Cement, and Tobacco, and Togolese exports of Perfumery & Cosmetics (though declining) and Raw Hides and Skin (growing).
How might the Dangote Refinery impact Nigeria-Togo trade?
The Dangote Refinery's ramp-up could reduce Nigeria's crude available for export to Togo's STIR refinery, as crude is processed domestically. It may also compete directly with STIR's refined product exports to Nigeria, leading to a gradual compression of both sides of the bilateral energy loop.