Sierra Leone Country Intelligence Brief 2026

A mineral-rich economy with an IMF programme and stable currency faces renewed inflation, thin reserves and fiscal pressure. The brief examines food production, power, mining value addition and the conditions investors need.

Executive summary

Sierra Leone is a small, mineral-rich economy on an IMF programme that is broadly on track. Growth reached 5% in 2025, iron ore exports are rising again and the leone has been stable. But the 2026 oil-price shock has pushed inflation back above 15%, reserves cover only about two months of imports, the budget deficit has overrun its target and the IMF rates debt-distress risk as high. The country has no sovereign credit rating. The government wants private capital in food production, power, mining value addition and infrastructure to deliver its Big Five plan and 500,000 youth jobs by 2030. Investors want stable mining terms, reliable power, foreign exchange they can access, and confidence that reforms hold through the 2028 election.

Key findings

1. Real GDP

   4.4% (2024); 5.0% (2025); 4.0% projected for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027 [9, 1]

2. Inflation

   15.66% (Aug 2026); food 5.82%, non-food 23.54% [2]

3. Gross reserves

   US$398.5m in Q1 2026; 2.3 months of imports at end-June 2026 [11, 5]

4. Public debt

   49.3% of non-iron-ore GDP (2025); high risk of debt distress [1] 2

Economic snapshot

5.0% Real GDP growth in 2025, helped by iron ore; growth excluding iron ore was 4.8% [1]

Sierra Leone entered 2026 with inflation at a multi-year low and an IMF programme back on track. The oil-price shock that began in February 2026 reversed much of that progress: inflation tripled in eight months, fuel subsidies returned and the deficit target had to be raised [2, 8] . Stats SL has not yet published 2025 GDP, so 2025 figures are IMF estimates.

Area: Size; Indicator: Nominal GDP; Latest value: NLe175.4bn (2025, IMF); about US$7.3bn excluding iron ore; about US$900 per person [1] 1.

Area: Growth; Indicator: Real GDP; Latest value: 4.4% (2024); 5.0% (2025); 4.0% projected for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027 [9, 1].

Indicator: Structure; Latest value: Agriculture 32%, industry 24% (mining 9%), services 42% of GDP (2024) [9].

Area: Prices; Indicator: Inflation; Latest value: 15.66% (Aug 2026); food 5.82%, non-food 23.54% [2].

Area: Rates; Indicator: Policy rate; Latest value: 17.25% after the September 2026 MPC; next MPC 10 Dec 2026 [3, 10].

Area: FX; Indicator: NLe per US$; Latest value: 22.95 (30 Sep 2026), from 22.69 at end-2024 [4].

Area: External; Indicator: Gross reserves; Latest value: US$398.5m in Q1 2026; 2.3 months of imports at end-June 2026 [11, 5].

Indicator: Current account; Latest value: Deficit of 5.4% of non-iron-ore GDP in 2025 [1].

Area: Fiscal; Indicator: 2026 budget; Latest value: Spending NLe30.3bn; deficit target raised to 2.8% of GDP in July 2026 [8].

Indicator: Public debt; Latest value: 49.3% of non-iron-ore GDP (2025); high risk of debt distress [1] 2.

Indicator: IMF; Latest value: US$248.5m ECF (2024–27) plus US$211.5m RSF; third review completed Jun 2026 [12, 13].

Area: Ratings; Indicator: Sovereign rating; Latest value: Not rated by S&P, Fitch or Moody's [14].

Area: People; Indicator: Population; Latest value: About 9.0 million; 58% under 25 [15].

Indicator: Poverty; Latest value: 59.2% multidimensionally poor [16].

1 IMF figures. Stats SL's nominal GDP for 2024 (NLe143.0bn) is lower than the IMF's (NLe157.4bn). US$ per person is an IMF preliminary figure.

2 The IMF measures debt against GDP excluding iron ore. The Ministry of Finance reports about 45% of total GDP for 2025.

Inflation has tripled since December

Inflation fell steadily through 2025 to 4.35% in December, then rose every month in 2026 to 15.66% in August as fuel, transport and housing costs climbed [2] . Food inflation is moderate at 5.8%; non-food inflation is 23.5%, with housing and utilities up 84% and transport 37% in July [17] . The BSL cut its policy rate from 24.75% to 16.75% during 2025 and has since raised it twice, to 17.25% [18, 19, 3] .

The budget is under pressure

The 2026 budget, presented on 28 November 2025, raised the corporate income tax rate back to 30% and extended the minimum tax to all companies [22] . A July 2026 supplementary budget raised energy subsidies from NLe0.48bn to NLe1.68bn, cut capital spending and lifted the deficit target from 2.3% to 2.8% of GDP [8] . By August the deficit was already NLe6.48bn, 147% of the original full-year target, and no external loans had been disbursed [23] .

The IMF programme: the credibility record

Date: 31 Oct 2024; Event: 38-month ECF of about US$248.5m approved [12]; Why it matters: Anchors fiscal and monetary policy to 2027.

Trade and investment profile

Sierra Leone runs a large trade deficit: from January to September 2025 exports were about US$1.2bn and imports US$1.4bn [22] 1 Minerals make up about three-quarters of exports; agriculture adds the rest, led by cocoa at US$111m over the same nine months [22, 35] . Iron ore prices fell from an average of US$120.6 a tonne in 2024 to US$99.5 in 2025 [22] .

Food, power and investment

Year: 2022; Volume: 418kt; Cost (US$m): $177m.

Government lens

This is how capital reads Sierra Leone today, using the same numbers investors use.

3.3 Red flags investors will raise

1 Inflation shock. Inflation rose from 4.35% to 15.66% in eight months [2] .

3.5 What strengthens Sierra Leone's case

Publish a fiscal recovery path Show how the 2026 overrun is corrected and arrears cleared [62].

Investor lens

What the state has committed to, where it needs capital, and on what terms.

4.2 Where capital is needed

- Power: about US$2.2bn of investment is needed by 2030 to reach 78% access and over 1GW of capacity [39] . - Mining value addition: 3 to 5 processing plants and US$2.5bn of investment targeted by 2031 [46] . - Agriculture: rice, cocoa and agro-processing; the EIB and Vista Bank launched a €10m SME facility in 2025 [67] . - Infrastructure: roads, the Lungi bridge plan and port upgrades under the 2025 concession addenda [68] . - Fisheries: sector output above US$240m, with tariff-free access to China since July 2025 [69] . - Digital: 101% mobile penetration but only 21% internet use [70] .

4.5 Policy direction and risk outlook

The government is balancing an IMF programme against an oil-price shock and a pre-election period. Parliament passed electoral reforms in August 2026, including proportional representation and a 30% quota for women; the main opposition party disputes them, and the President is term-limited [53] . The 2023 election dispute was settled by the Agreement for National Unity, but its recommendations are only partly implemented [72, 73] .

Where interests meet

8 opportunities where a stated need meets investor appetite: food and solar are ready now; mining and power need firmer terms

Methodology and data notes

75 statistical releases, official statements and published analyses drawn on for this brief