Nigeria Cocoa Trade Report 2021 to 2024
Record bean earnings, the price cycle behind them, where the beans go, and a case study of Cross River State — Nigeria earned $2.17bn from cocoa bean exports in 2024, up 171% on 2023.
Executive summary
Cocoa is Nigeria’s leading agricultural export and one of the few non-oil lines that earns dollars at scale. Part A of this report tracks four years of trade data across 14 cocoa-related product lines, sets them against three decades of exports and world prices, and explains what moves those prices. Part B is a case study of Cross River State, the second-largest producer, from farm to port.
Bean earnings nearly tripled in 2024. Cocoa bean exports rose from $802 million in 2023 to $2.17 billion in 2024, +171%, after dipping to $490 million in 2022 [1].
The jump was mostly price. The world cocoa price averaged $7,391 a tonne in 2024, up 127% on 2023 [2]. Dividing export value by that price implies volumes rose only about a fifth, to roughly 294,000 tonnes.
Prices have round-tripped. The monthly world price peaked at $10,710 in January 2025, fell 70% to $3,241 by March 2026 as demand weakened and supply recovered, then rebounded to $5,619 in July 2026 on weather and El Niño fears [2, 4].
Beans still dominate; value addition slipped. Raw beans were 87% of cocoa exports in 2024. Processed exports grew to $313 million, but their share fell from 17.4% to 12.6% as dear beans squeezed grinders [1].
Two buyers take two-thirds of the beans. The Netherlands ($780 million) and Malaysia ($654 million) bought 66% of 2024 bean exports [1].
Nigeria’s second-largest producer. Cross River grows roughly 58,000 to 72,000 tonnes a year, a fifth to a quarter of the national crop; Etung, Boki and Ikom supply about 89% of it [3, 5].
Its beans leave as Lagos exports. Most of the crop is trucked about 774 km from Ikom to Lagos and Ogun and shipped from there; Calabar has handled only one 7,000-tonne consignment [3, 6].
Cameroon is the hidden supplier. Cameroon’s government put cocoa smuggled into Nigeria at 30,000 to 60,000 tonnes in 2022/23, much of it through Cross River’s border LGAs [7].
Ikom buyers hold the power. The four largest buyer groups take 58% of purchases and farmers receive roughly half of export value, according to a 2025/26 field survey [8].
Traceability is the swing factor. About 20% of Ikom supply is untraceable by one major agent’s estimate, as EU deforestation rules start on 30 December 2026 [9, 10]. SysIN’s base case puts output at about 76,000 tonnes by 2029/30.
Nigeria’s cocoa earnings are set by weather, disease and demand far from its farms. The 2024 windfall arrived with little extra output and is already unwinding: the world price averaged $4,200 in the first seven months of 2026, 46% below its 2025 average [2]. Durable gains lie in volume, value addition and market access. Cross River shows what stands in the way of each: flat yields and post-crash farmer debt, an idle state processing plant, and a supply chain that mixes traceable beans with forest-grown and Cameroonian cocoa just as Nigeria’s largest buyer region starts demanding proof of origin.
Key findings
Cocoa bean exports surged by 171% in 2024.
Cocoa bean exports climbed from $802 million in 2023 to a record $2.17 billion in 2024, a 171% increase. This jump was primarily driven by price rather than volume, with the world cocoa price averaging $7,391 a tonne, up 127% from 2023.
World cocoa prices peaked at $10,710 per tonne in early 2025.
The monthly world cocoa price reached an unprecedented $10,710 in January 2025. However, prices subsequently fell 70% to $3,241 by March 2026 before rebounding to $5,619 by July 2026, demonstrating significant volatility driven by supply, demand, and climate fears.
Raw beans dominate exports, with value addition decreasing in 2024.
In 2024, raw beans constituted 87% of Nigeria's total cocoa exports, indicating limited local processing. Despite growth in processed exports to $313 million, their share of total cocoa exports fell from 17.4% in 2023 to 12.6% in 2024, as high bean prices squeezed grinders' margins.
The Netherlands and Malaysia are primary destinations for Nigerian cocoa beans.
These two countries purchased 66% of Nigeria's 2024 cocoa bean exports, with the Netherlands buying $780 million and Malaysia $654 million. Europe and Southeast Asia collectively account for the vast majority of Nigeria's bean exports.
Cross River State is Nigeria's second-largest cocoa producer.
Producing an estimated 58,000 to 72,000 tonnes annually, Cross River State contributes a fifth to a quarter of Nigeria's total cocoa crop. Most of its beans are transported by road to Lagos for export, rather than through the closer Calabar port.
Significant informal cocoa inflows occur from Cameroon into Cross River.
Cameroon's government estimated that 30,000 to 60,000 tonnes of cocoa were smuggled into Nigeria in 2022/23, much of it through Cross River's border areas. This informal trade inflates reported volumes from Cross River and presents a challenge for traceability.
EU deforestation regulations pose a major challenge for Nigerian cocoa exports.
Starting December 30, 2026, the EU Deforestation Regulation requires plot-level geolocation to prove cocoa was not grown on recently deforested land. Approximately 20% of Ikom's cocoa supply is currently untraceable, threatening access to Nigeria's largest buyer region.
Ikom's cocoa market is moderately concentrated, with LBA's holding significant power.
A 2025/26 field survey found that the four largest buyer groups in Ikom control 58% of purchases. Farmers typically receive about half of the export value, and local concentration is linked to lower farmgate prices.
| Year | Cross River | Edo | Ekiti | Ogun | Ondo | Osun | Oyo | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 57,120 | 19,040 | 14,280 | 16,660 | 69,020 | 42,840 | 16,660 | 2,380 | 238,000 |
| 2014 | 59,520 | 19,840 | 14,880 | 17,360 | 71,920 | 44,640 | 17,360 | 2,480 | 248,000 |
| 2015 | 46,800 | 15,600 | 11,700 | 13,650 | 56,550 | 35,100 | 13,650 | 1,950 | 195,000 |
| 2016 | 48,000 | 16,000 | 12,000 | 14,000 | 58,000 | 36,000 | 14,000 | 2,000 | 200,000 |
| 2017 | 55,200 | 18,400 | 13,800 | 16,100 | 66,700 | 41,400 | 16,100 | 2,300 | 230,000 |
| 2018 | 64,800 | 21,600 | 16,200 | 18,900 | 78,300 | 48,600 | 18,900 | 2,700 | 270,000 |
| 2019 | 60,000 | 20,000 | 15,000 | 17,500 | 72,500 | 45,000 | 17,500 | 2,500 | 250,000 |
| 2020 | 69,600 | 23,200 | 17,400 | 20,300 | 84,100 | 52,200 | 20,300 | 2,900 | 290,000 |
| 2021 | 67,200 | 22,400 | 16,800 | 19,600 | 81,200 | 50,400 | 19,600 | 2,800 | 280,000 |
| 2022 | 72,159 | 24,052 | 18,039 | 21,046 | 87,192 | 54,119 | 21,046 | 3,007 | 300,662 |
| Product (HS6) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cocoa beans (180100) | 786.6 | 490.1 | 801.6 | 2,171.4 |
| Cocoa butter, fat and oil (180400) | 39.7 | 48.5 | 53.8 | 193.4 |
| Cocoa paste, defatted (180320) | 10.0 | 14.2 | 33.9 | 43.1 |
| Cocoa paste, not defatted (180310) | 19.0 | 9.9 | 43.9 | 25.4 |
| Sweetened cocoa powder (180610) | 1.0 | 2.5 | 12.8 | 26.4 |
| Chocolate, bulk (>2kg) (180620) | 0.2 | 6.0 | 22.4 | 16.4 |
| Other chocolate preparations (180690) | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3.8 |
| Filled chocolate bars (180631) | 0.6 | 4.1 | 0.2 | 3.8 |
| Cocoa shells and waste (180200) | 8.3 | 39.3 | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Unsweetened cocoa powder (180500) | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Unfilled chocolate bars (180632) | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total cocoa (HS 1801 to 1806) | 869.4 | 616.7 | 971.5 | 2,486.7 |
| Destination | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Share 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 322.7 | 189.2 | 351.1 | 780.3 | 35.9% |
| Malaysia | 144.5 | 88.8 | 222.2 | 653.6 | 30.1% |
| Belgium | 19.7 | 6.6 | 11.6 | 157.4 | 7.2% |
| Singapore | 11.5 | 13.6 | 96.8 | 4.5% | |
| Indonesia | 69.6 | 105.7 | 108.8 | 85.5 | 3.9% |
| Germany | 35.5 | 10.4 | 86.9 | 4.0% | |
| Canada | 38.3 | 29.4 | 22.0 | 67.3 | 3.1% |
| Ghana | 43.9 | 2.0% | |||
| Italy | 17.2 | 10.7 | 23.7 | 38.9 | 1.8% |
| Turkey | 8.0 | 40.0 | 1.8% | ||
| United States | 54.1 | 17.0 | 10.1 | ||
| Spain | 7.2 | 9.7 | |||
| Russia | 29.5 | ||||
| Bulgaria | 16.2 |
| Flow | Route | Volume or share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main export route | Ikom → road (~774 km) → Lagos warehouses or Tulip’s plant at Ijebu-Mushin, Ogun → Apapa/Tin-Can ports | Most of the crop; Ikom centre handled ~51,100 t (55% of South-South trade) | [3] |
| Calabar port | Ikom → Calabar (~200 km) → barge transshipment to ships offshore | One 7,000 t shipment (Mar 2021); exporters say transshipment costs more than trucking to Lagos | [3, 6] |
| Northern route | Boki/Obanliku/Obudu → Obudu wholesale centre | ~15,500 t (17% of South-South trade), incl. some Adamawa/Taraba beans | [3] |
| Cameroon inflow (informal) | Mamfe/Ekok → Ikom via Etung, Boki, Obanliku | 30,000–60,000 t smuggled to Nigeria in 2022/23 (10–20% of Cameroon’s crop) | [7] |
| Export destinations | Europe dominant (Netherlands, Belgium, Germany); Asia second | EU takes ~70% of Nigerian cocoa | [43, 44] |
Nigeria’s cocoa economy
Cocoa is grown by smallholders across Nigeria’s southwest and south. Almost all of the crop is exported, most of it as beans. In the first quarter of 2026, superior-quality cocoa beans earned ₦596.9 billion, about 51% of Nigeria’s agricultural export earnings [12].
National output has moved in a narrow band. ICCO-commissioned research puts it between 195,000 and 300,662 tonnes a year from 2013 to 2022, and Nigeria produced an estimated 344,000 tonnes in 2024/25, with the Cocoa Association of Nigeria forecasting 305,000 tonnes for 2025/26 [3, 13]. Farmers’ associations put potential output at 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes with sustained investment [11]. Ageing trees, black pod disease and weather are the main constraints; in November 2025 farmgate prices were reported 44% lower as the main crop opened [14].
Ondo is the largest producer with 29% of output in this series, followed by Cross River (24%) and Osun (18%). The series applies the same shares every year, so it shows each state’s scale rather than shifts between states (Part B covers Cross River).
Figure 1 puts the 2021 to 2024 period in context. Bean exports ran at $0.2 billion to $0.5 billion a year until 2007, climbed to about $1.7 billion in 2009 and 2012 during the last price cycle, then settled between roughly $0.5 billion and $0.8 billion from 2013 to 2023. The 2024 figure of $2.17 billion is the highest in the series [1].
Bean imports are negligible in every year except 2011, when the series records about $1.6 billion of inflows. That spike has no counterpart in Nigeria’s grinding capacity or in later years’ data, and is best treated as a recording anomaly rather than real trade.
World cocoa prices
Nigeria is a price-taker. Its cocoa is sold into a world market priced off futures in London and New York, so the dollar value of every tonne it exports moves with that market. Figure 2 shows the IMF’s benchmark world cocoa price, a monthly average in US dollars per tonne, from January 1992 to July 2026 [2].
Export trends, 2021 to 2024
Cocoa exports fell 29% in 2022, recovered in 2023 and then jumped in 2024. Across HS 1801 to 1806, exports went from $869 million in 2021 to $617 million in 2022, $972 million in 2023 and $2.49 billion in 2024 [1].
Destination markets
Nigerian beans go to grinders in northern Europe and Southeast Asia. The ten largest buyers took 94% to 97% of bean exports in each year from 2021 to 2024 [1].
Value addition
Nigeria’s processed cocoa exports have grown fast from a small base. Butter, paste, powder and chocolate together rose from $74 million in 2021 to $169 million in 2023 and $313 million in 2024 [1].
Imports
Nigeria imports little cocoa. Cocoa and chocolate imports (HS 1801 to 1806) were $33 million in 2021, peaked at $56 million in 2023 and fell to $38 million in 2024, leaving a cocoa trade surplus of about $2.4 billion [1].
Policy drivers
Prices explain most of the movement in Nigeria’s cocoa trade since 2024 (Section 03). Two policy questions will shape the next two years: whether Nigeria restricts raw bean exports, and whether its exporters can prove their cocoa is deforestation-free.
Outlook and what to watch
The 2025 average world price of $7,788 was slightly above 2024’s [2], so 2025 earnings should have stayed high if volumes held. 2026 is different. Cocoa bean and butter exports fell to ₦240.73 billion in the second quarter of 2026 from ₦590.56 billion a year earlier [28], and with prices averaging $4,200 a tonne so far, 2026 bean earnings are likely to fall well below the 2024 and 2025 levels.
Cross River’s cocoa market
Cross River produces roughly 58,000 to 72,000 tonnes of cocoa a year, a fifth to a quarter of Nigeria’s crop. No agency publishes a regular state-level series for production, trade or prices: the figures here come from ICCO-commissioned research, a 2025/26 field survey, state officials, industry associations and the press, and they disagree [3, 5]. Where sources conflict, this section shows the range.
Trade flows and the Cameroon connection
Cross River cocoa leaves the state mainly by road to Lagos and Ogun, so it appears in national data as Lagos shipments. Its effective import market is the Cameroonian beans that cross into Etung, Boki and Obanliku. The chain follows a state-enforced order: smallholders, cooperatives, village buying agents, licensed buying agents (LBAs), then exporters; exporters and unregistered merchants may not buy directly from farmers [3].
Value chain, players and market power
Power in the Cross River chain concentrates at Ikom’s licensed buying agents. Every bean must pass through them under the state’s buying order, they lend to farmers, and they absorb the Cameroonian inflow [3, 8]. Across Nigeria, LBAs handle about 87% of bean flows and cooperatives about 10%, and the ICCO value-chain model gives intermediaries the widest margin per tonne of any actor [3].
Prices, quality and finance
Nigeria has no fixed farmgate price, so Cross River farm prices track world prices and the naira with a lag [3]. They have partly recovered after the 2025 crash.
Policy, outlook and risks
The EU Deforestation Regulation is the rule that matters most for Cross River in the next 12 months. Each EU-bound lot will need plot-level geolocation proving no deforestation, which is hard for beans grown in the Afi Forest Reserve or bought across the Cameroon border [10]. At federal level, the National Cocoa Management Committee cites a goal of 1 million tonnes a year by 2030 [55], and Cross River is one of two states that qualified for phase 1 of the AfDB-backed Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones for cocoa [3].
Frequently asked questions
What is the primary factor driving Nigeria's cocoa earnings?
Nigeria’s cocoa earnings are primarily determined by world cocoa prices, which are influenced by global weather conditions, disease, and demand, rather than by changes in domestic output. The 2024 windfall, for instance, was mostly a price effect, with volumes rising only about a fifth.
How much cocoa does Cross River State produce, and where does it go?
Cross River State produces roughly 58,000 to 72,000 tonnes of cocoa annually, accounting for a fifth to a quarter of Nigeria’s national crop. Most of this cocoa is transported by road approximately 774 km from Ikom to Lagos and Ogun, where it is shipped for export, primarily to European Union buyers and Southeast Asia.
What impact will the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) have on Nigeria's cocoa exports?
The EUDR, effective December 30, 2026, will require importers to provide plot-level geolocation data to prove cocoa was not grown on recently deforested land. This is a critical market access requirement, especially since about half of Nigeria’s beans go to EU buyers, and an estimated 20% of Cross River's cocoa supply is currently untraceable.
Why did the share of processed cocoa exports decline in 2024 despite overall export growth?
The share of processed cocoa exports fell from 17.4% in 2023 to 12.6% in 2024 because raw bean prices grew much faster than processed product prices. Grinders faced squeezed margins and increased working capital costs due to the sharp rise in world cocoa bean prices, constraining their processing capacity.
What role does Cameroon play in Nigeria's cocoa trade?
Cameroon is a significant hidden supplier to Nigeria's cocoa market, with an estimated 30,000 to 60,000 tonnes of cocoa smuggled into Nigeria, particularly through Cross River's border areas, in 2022/23. This informal inflow inflates Nigeria's reported export volumes and complicates traceability efforts.